Varsovian to Upset Market Leader at Lingfield

2.30 Redcar – Bella Alissa

Redcar is a marmite track for bettors – some absolutely love it, and other have a difficult time finding winners at the northern course. In theory, everyone is on a level playing field, with the course being a galloping track with a long home straight. Our first bet of the day comes in an interesting maiden for 3 year olds +, run over 6 furlongs. There is a strong market leader in the form of the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Classical Times, but in a twist, we shun the odds-on favourite and go for the formerly trained Chapple-Hyam runner Bella Alissa who has joined the excellent Robert Cowell yard.

Bella Alissa made a hugely eye catching debut in an ordinary maiden last August. Running at Goodwood, the daughter of Dutch Art dwelt badly in the stalls and ran very green early in the contest. The penny finally dropped and the horse consented to run on, finishing with a real flourish, indicating that with a bit more experience, she would have won. Horses will learn a lot from running at Goodwood on debut, as the track is sharp and undulating and emphasises balance and speed. After that run, the horse moved yards from Chapple-Hyam and has joined Robert Cowell, who would have to be considered a superior trainer at this point. With a winter of development behind her, and running over a straight 6 furlongs, the Dutch Art filly Bella Alissa should be able to go very close. Robert Cowell runners off for 90+ days in January-July a very good record; 30/177 (17%) for £132 LSP, with the horses winning 70% more often than they are entitled to based on the odds.

Classical Times, the favourite, has to be respected of course. After a solid debut run, this filly finished a solid fifth in a listed event at Newmarket. The Listed events for fillies can often be a bit weak, but that form does put her head and shoulders above the field. However, with plenty of improvement expected from our selection Bella Alissa, it could be closer than the odds suggest and our runner is a nice each-way price at 4.50Bet €100 to win €4507/2Bet £100 to win £450+350Bet $100 to win $4503.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$4503.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp450-0.2857Bet RM100 to win RM450  with Ladbrokes and BetVictor.

2.40 Lingfield – Varsovian

Following the theme of opposing a strong market leader, we are backing the Dean Ivory trained Varsovian in the claimer over 6 furlongs. Dean Ivory’s horse will need a couple of the market principles to under-perform, but in this sort of race that is a distinct possibility and the 7 year old son of Refuse To Bend looks like the one to be with at odds of 6.50Bet €100 to win €65011/2Bet £100 to win £650+550Bet $100 to win $6505.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$6505.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp650-0.1818Bet RM100 to win RM650  with BetVictor and Bet365.

Varsovian does well with a little break between his races. When turned out within 21 days of his last performance, the horse is just 1/12 with 1 place. However, when off for more than 21 days, he is 6/18 for £7 LSP, so the mini break definitely has to be a bonus. When Dean Ivory runners are competing over 8 furlongs or less, have been off the track for 8 weeks or less and they are fancied in the betting from May-December, they do particularly well; 142/853 (17%) for £55 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.28. Furthermore, Varsovian is 4/11 at Lingfield and he loves the track.

Flowers On Venus is the market leader and is chasing a treble. This horse has the best form in the field and is favoured by the weights. Tom Dascombe’s runners tend to do better when returning to the track fairly quickly, and we hope that he under-performs.

Tips Summary

14:30 Ripon – Bella Alissa (Each Way)
Thursday 4th May
Odds: 4.50Bet €100 to win €4507/2Bet £100 to win £450+350Bet $100 to win $4503.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$4503.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp450-0.2857Bet RM100 to win RM450

14:40 Lingfield – Varsovian to win
Thursday 4th May
Odds: 6.50Bet €100 to win €65011/2Bet £100 to win £650+550Bet $100 to win $6505.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$6505.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp650-0.1818Bet RM100 to win RM650